![]() ![]() However, there is an ELS calculator available to use in TSM. Expected Losing Sequence - ELS Currently the ELS is just over 10 bets (10.6), which makes sense as the actual longest losing sequence for the Pro Backer bets is 10.ΔΆ The maths behind the formula to calculate ELS is beyond the scope of this article. When looking at Level Stakes, the Edge is the same as your Return on Investment (ROI). This means in real terms that for every 1 staked you would expect to make a profit of 33.94p. The most important ones at this stage are the Edge and the ELS (Expected Losing Sequence). You can see from the Quick Stats screenshot in TSM above, there are 245 bets and a strike rate of 40.4%. If there is no edge you will always lose money in the end. Any selection system that is not making a profit at level stakes should be binned. Before I ever start looking at staking plans, I always look at level stakes. Therefore I ended up with a dataset of 245 bets spread over more than 2 years. So I wasn t too worried about missing them out. To 1 stakes the 12 bets made 2.30 profit. Now I could have simply edited the odds to make them all win bets. TSM is currently unable to mix Win Bets with EW bets. The first thing I noticed is that within the 257 bets there were 12 Each Way bets. The data I received comprised of every bet advised since the service launched. ![]() So when I had an from Matthew Walton regarding the Pro Backer advisory service he runs, it was a nice surprise to see a set of results with an edge of over 30%. Or if there is an edge - it is too small. Too often I get the data through, and within seconds of running it through TSM, I can see straight away there is no edge. 1 TSM meets the Pro Backer written by Dave Morris (August 2013) As the founder and owner of The Staking Machine (TSM), I m often approached by tipsters asking me to look at their historical results, and then suggest the best staking plan(s) to use. ![]()
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